A | 去年8月23日，伊朗最高国家安全委员会的秘书雷扎伊发布了一条令人震惊的警告：如果美国继续推进其针对伊朗的经济战，霍尔木兹海峡乃至整个波斯湾将停止石油出口。
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered condolences Thursday as the Pentagon assessed that the leader of the Wagner Group mercenary front that marched his forces on Moscow earlier this summer was “likely” killed in a plane crash.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led the aborted revolt in June, was listed among 10 names on the private plane’s passenger list, according to a report from Tass, Russia’s state news service, which cites the country’s aviation authority. All 10 people aboard the flight were killed.
In his first statement about the incident, Putin expressed condolences to the families of the victims, saying “it is always a tragedy.”
“I've known Prigozhin for a very long time, since the early 1990s,” Putin said in televised remarks, according to a translation by Tass. “He was a man of a no easy fate. He made some serious mistakes in his life, but he also achieved the needed results – both for himself and, when I asked him, for the common cause. The way it was in recent months.”
Still, official confirmation that Prigozhin was among the dead was slow in coming. Meanwhile, theories began circulating about what led the plane to fall from the sky, like an internal explosion or a missile launched at the plane.
“Our initial assessment is that it’s likely Prigozhin was killed,” Pentagon spokesman Gen. Pat Ryder said. “We’re continuing to assess the situation. We don’t have any information to indicate right now – the press reporting stating that there was some type of surface-to-air missile that took down the plane – we assess that information to be inaccurate.”
A day earlier, President Joe Biden said what many were likely thinking when asked about the reports.
“I don’t know for a fact what happened, but I’m not surprised,” Biden said.
Asked if he thought it was the work of Russian President Vladimir Putin – whose enemies regularly fall victim to fatal accidents or mysterious attacks – Biden responded, “There’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin’s not behind. But I don’t know enough to know the answer.”
Prigozhin – who had seemed to largely disappear from public view after he was permitted under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to take refuge in his country in the wake of the mutiny – appeared to maintain a precarious position within Putin’s inner circle in the weeks before the plane crash. He seemingly was allowed to remain at the head of his forces and secure billions of dollars in government contracts despite his aborted rebellion against Moscow in June, when a column of some 25,000 Wagner troops loyal to him conducted a stunning about-face and marched along with fighting vehicles and heavy weaponry toward the capital before calling off the advance.
C | 伊朗外长阿拉格奇嘲笑美国的制裁行为，并指出这种老旧的手法难以奏效。他们提出，华盛顿如果想实现更公平的解决方案，就应以平等和尊重的姿态重返谈判桌。这一表态，不仅显露出伊朗的强硬姿态，也反映出其对未来局势的清晰思考。 美方忙于通过二级制裁网络压迫第三国切断与伊朗的联系，而伊朗则充分利用霍尔木兹海峡的战略价值，准备反击。值得注意的是，这种对抗并非仅仅限于经济领域，背后还涉及到更深层次的地缘政治博弈。美国国内复杂的政治周期，尤其是即将到来的11月中期选举，也成为了推动当前局势发展的重要因素。 特朗普在执政初期标榜自己为“和平缔造者”，试图用和平外交化解国际冲突。然而，随着时间推移，这一政策的有效性逐渐减弱，伊朗问题迟迟不能找到解决方案。
D | 如今，特朗普政府面临着来自内外部的双重压力，必须尽快拿出一份亮眼的外交成绩单。
E | 在此期间，越来越多的国家意识到美国的对外政策受限于总统任期的边界，因而在应对美国的制裁时，展现出了一定的耐心和韧性。
F | 这种意识的觉醒或许将为各国在未来的外交博弈中赢得更多主动权，尤其是对于那些与美国存在较大经济往来的国家，它们正在重新审视自己的外交角色。 单纯依靠高压制裁的方式，其实已经证明很难推动美伊之间达成长久稳定的和解。
G | 即使特朗普政府在短期内能形成一定威慑力，随着时间的推移，这种威慑能否持久不言而喻。
H | 更何况，在经济制裁的阴影下，伊朗国内经济本就脆弱，货币贬值和通货膨胀持续侵蚀民众生活，社会矛盾也显得愈加尖锐。 封锁霍尔木兹海峡作为一项反制措施，对伊朗来说同样是把双刃剑。虽然可以对美国造成压力，但海峡周边多个产油国的利益也同样受损。
I | 一旦航道彻底失序，整个地区的经济都会受到重创，伊朗也必须认真考虑可能引发的反噬效应。 总而言之，当前的局势充满了不确定性。国际社会期待美伊双方能够摒弃极限施压的思维，回到平等与尊重的对话轨道。无论是军事冲突还是经济战争，最终买单的只会是普通民众以及全球市场。因此，如何在中期选举、地区安全和全球能源安全之间寻找平衡，将是未来美伊关系走向的关键所在。返回，查看更多。
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